49ers at Risk of Losing Home-Field Playoff Advantage as a Worst-Case Scenario No One in the Fanbase Saw Coming

SANTA CLARA – No one imagined the San Francisco 49ers, a team that has dominated the NFC in recent seasons, could find themselves in a precarious position like this: facing the real possibility of not hosting a single playoff game at Levi’s Stadium. Despite sitting at 9-4 and still viewed as a top contender in the conference, the 49ers currently project as the No. 7 seed according to the latest analytical simulations — meaning they would be forced to open the postseason on the road in the Wild Card Round if the season ended today. It’s a scenario that feels like ice water poured directly onto their Super Bowl aspirations.

The deeper issue lies not only in the wide NFC playoff race but in a tense battle within the NFC West, where the Rams and Seahawks continue to press San Francisco week after week. One NFC analytics assistant noted: “If you’re a 5-, 6- or 7-seed, you’re almost guaranteed to start on the road. And everyone knows: winning playoff games on the road isn’t easy — not even for a team as good as the 49ers.” That concern grows even heavier with a remaining schedule loaded with difficult opponents like the Bills, Rams, and Lions — all teams capable of directly impacting San Francisco’s postseason berth and seeding.

To flip the script, the 49ers have two pathways: win the NFC West and secure a top-four seed, or chase the bigger prize — the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That would require not only a near-perfect finish but also help from teams ahead of them, such as the Eagles, Lions, or Cowboys. A member of the 49ers’ scouting department admitted: “Of course we want to play at Levi’s. Who wouldn’t want home-field? But the truth is, it’s not entirely in our hands anymore.”

Meanwhile, inside the locker room, San Francisco is trying to stay mentally locked in. The players know the opportunity is still there, even if it’s narrower than it was earlier in the season. When linebacker Fred Warner was asked about the possibility of beginning the playoffs on the road, he delivered a brief, emotional response: “Home or away, we’ll fight. But nobody denies Levi’s gives us something special.” It was a leader’s answer — one that also hinted at the quiet anxiety surrounding matters out of their control.

Altogether, the situation creates a tense outlook for the 49ers’ stretch run. They remain strong, deep, and experienced enough to make a run — but pushing through the postseason without home-field advantage could be their toughest challenge since Kyle Shanahan took over. With their fate tied to both their own results and the missteps of other contenders, San Francisco is entering a defining week for the entire 2025 campaign.

And the most unsettling part? It’s a scenario no 49ers fan ever imagined would be real.