Why the Kansas City Chiefs Are Poised to Beat the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving — And How to Watch the Week 13 Matchup

The Thanksgiving opener at AT&T Stadium features a high-stakes showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) and Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1), and while both teams enter with momentum, all major analytics models, matchup data, and injury reports point firmly toward Kansas City holding the advantage. With the Chiefs favored at -3.5 and holding a 68% win probability, here are the key reasons why the reigning AFC powerhouse is projected to outplay Dallas on the national stage.

First, Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate equalizer in November and December. Fresh off leading the biggest fourth-quarter comeback of his career against the Colts, Mahomes has recaptured his elite form at the most crucial part of the season. He threw for 352 yards last week and has historically dominated in must-win situations. Against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed 195+ passing yards per game recently and given up explosive plays late, Mahomes enters this matchup with a clear upper hand. In games where the Chiefs hold opponents under 20 points — something they’ve done six times this year — Kansas City is 6-1.

Second, Kansas City’s defense has quietly become one of the league’s most reliable units. The Chiefs rank top 11 across major categories, including No. 8 against the run and No. 11 against the pass, while giving up fewer than 20 points per game. Their pass rush, led by George Karlaftis (5 sacks), is tailor-made to pressure Dak Prescott — who has thrown four interceptions in the last three games. Dallas improved defensively after acquiring Quinnen Williams, but their secondary remains their biggest vulnerability, especially against tight ends and shift receivers like Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and rookie burner Xavier Worthy.

Third, Kansas City has more momentum and urgency entering Thanksgiving. Both teams won emotional games in Week 12, but the Chiefs’ overtime victory over the Colts showcased their championship resilience, while Dallas’ comeback over the Eagles masked deeper concerns on offense. At 6-5, Kansas City is fighting to stay in the AFC’s top playoff tier, and Mahomes-led teams historically surge at this point in the season. The trends support it: Chiefs games have gone Under in 8 of 11 contests, a marker of disciplined defensive play that travels well — even into AT&T Stadium.

Finally, injuries tilt slightly toward Kansas City. While the Chiefs will be without guard Trey Smith and tight end Noah Gray, all key playmakers — Mahomes, Pacheco, Rice, and Worthy — are expected to play. Dallas will be missing starting tackle Tyler Guyton and could be without corner Caelen Carson, a critical blow against a high-octane Chiefs passing attack.

How to Watch the Chiefs vs. Cowboys – NFL Week 13, Thanksgiving 2025

Kickoff:
📅 Thursday, November 27, 2025
⏰ 4:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. CT – local time in Texas)
🏟️ AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas

TV Broadcast:
📺 CBS (National)
Announcers: Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn
Kansas City Market: KCTV 5
Dallas Market: KTVT (CBS 11)

Streaming:

• Paramount+ (HD, nationwide)

Radio:

• SiriusXM NFL Radio – CH 88 (Chiefs), CH 83 (Cowboys)

With Mahomes peaking, the Chiefs defense stabilizing, and Dallas entering short-week injuries at key positions, Kansas City enters Thanksgiving with the advantage where it counts most — quarterback play, situational control, and late-season urgency.

And for the Cowboys, stopping a desperate, ascending Chiefs team may be the toughest assignment of the holiday slate.